برآورد دمای خاک در اقلیم‌های مختلف با استفاده از روش‌های داده‌محور

چکیده

دمای ‌خاک یکی از جنبه‌های مهم کشاورزی و هیدرولوژی است و اندازه‌گیری دقیق آن برای اطمینان از رشد و نمو مطلوب گیاه بسیار مهم است. دمای‌ خاک عاملی است که بر بسیاری از فرآیندها مانند جوانه‌زنی بذر، میزان رطوبت خاک، تهویه، سرعت نیتریفیکاسیون و در دسترس بودن مواد‌مغذی گیاه تأثیر می‌گذارد. با توجه به این که داده‌های دمای ‌خاک در بعضی از ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک اندازه‌گیری می‌شود، اغلب داده‌ها دارای محدودیت و یا نواقصی هستند. با این حال انتخاب بهترین روش جهت پیش‌بینی و تخمین دمای‌ خاک با سایر داده‌های هواشناسی موجود، رویکردی مؤثر و کار‌آمد در بسیاری از زمینه‌ها می‌باشد؛ لذا در مطالعه حاضر، توانایی مدل‌های داده محور رگرسیون فرایند گاوسی (GPR)، رگرسیون ماشین بردار پشتیبان (SVR)، الگوریتم M5P، رگرسیون خطی (LR) و  شبکه عصبی پرسپترون چندلایه (MLP) در برآورد دمای ‌خاک سه ایستگاه اراک، رامسر و شیراز طی دوره آماری 32 ساله با استفاده از پنج معیار اعتبارسنجی مورد ارزیابی قرار‌گرفت. نتایج بدست‌آمده نشان‌داد که سناریو هشتم M5P و LR  با داشتن جذر میانگین مربعات خطای کمتر به ترتیب «899/0و 889/0» برای ایستگاه رامسر، «958/0 و949/0» برای ایستگاه اراک و «966/0 و953/0» برای ایستگاه شیراز، عملکرد بهتری نسبت به سایر مدل‌ها  داشته‌است. همچنین پارامتر‌های رطوبت نسبی و دمای ‌هوا از مؤثر‌ترین پارامتر‌های هواشناسی مورد نیاز در برآورد دمای ‌خاک شناخته شد، بطوری که افزودن این پارامتر‌ها باعث افزایش دقت مدل می‌شود.

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